What is 20-bar high breakout? — chart signal explained
This signal uses no fancy math — it watches price itself. Take the highest price printed over the last 20 bars as a ceiling, and check whether the current close has reached it. Clearing a ceiling that held for a while is why it's called a breakout signal.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
On barobara, it fires when the close touches or exceeds the highest high of the last 20 bars.
How traders usually read it
Breaking the ceiling is read as proof that buyers are in control, so many traders expect the move to carry further after a fresh high. It's a favorite entry spot for trend-following styles.
What to watch out for
False breakouts are common — price pokes above the old high and immediately slips back. In dull, sideways markets especially, what looks like a breakout often round-trips. A new high alone is no guarantee the climb continues.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1h)
The common reading is a bounce (up) — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 8 times on BTC 1h; across the most recent 8, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 25% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 38%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 25% | -0.12% |
| ±0.5% | 25% | -0.25% |
| ±0.75% | 25% | -0.38% |
| ±1% | 38% | -0.24% |
| ±1.5% | 25% | -0.75% |
| ±2% | 25% | -1.00% |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-11 | 0.42% | ✅ hit |
| 2024-06-23 | 0.23% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2024-12-27 | 1.36% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-05-29 | 2.44% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-07-16 | 2.84% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-09-21 | 0.03% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-10-07 | 0.16% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-11-09 | 2.21% | ✅ hit |
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