This one counts how many candles in a row have closed higher than the candle before. Each close above the previous close adds one to the run; a down or flat close resets the count to zero. It turns on when three or more consecutive candles close above the previous close, on whatever timeframe you're viewing — on an hourly chart, that's three hourly candles rising back to back. It stays on for as long as the run continues.

Does 3 bars up really mean a drop?

That is the common reading. This signal has fired 1187 times on BTC 4h; across the most recent 300, price hit +0.25% first about 45% of the time. A historical probability, not a guarantee.

← Win-rate picks

What is 3 bars up? — chart signal explained

This one counts how many candles in a row have closed higher than the candle before. Each close above the previous close adds one to the run; a down or flat close resets the count to zero.

See this signal live now →

When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria

It turns on when three or more consecutive candles close above the previous close, on whatever timeframe you're viewing — on an hourly chart, that's three hourly candles rising back to back. It stays on for as long as the run continues.

How traders usually read it

One camp takes it as steady buying pressure — a sign the mood is turning brighter. The other camp sees three closes up with no pause and starts suspecting the move is due for a breather.

What to watch out for

The size of each gain doesn't factor in at all — three tiny upticks fire the signal the same as three big rallies. In a strong market it can stay lit for a long stretch, while in a feeble bounce it can flip off the moment it appears. The signal alone can't tell you which market you're in.

What the data actually shows (BTC 4h)

The common reading is a drop — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 1187 times on BTC 4h; across the most recent 300, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 45% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 47%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.

Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)

Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.

Target = stop (±)	Win rate (+ first)	EV (before fees)
±0.25%	45%	-0.02%
±0.5%	48%	-0.02%
±0.75%	50%	+0.00%
±1%	47%	-0.06%
±1.5%	52%	+0.06%
±2%	50%	+0.00%

📐 How to read this. EV assumes a symmetric ±X% target and stop: EV = target × (win rate − loss rate), so any win rate above 50% gives a positive EV. Fees are NOT included — they differ by exchange and order type (maker/taker). In reality fees come off the top, and the smaller the target, the bigger the bite fees take (at ±0.25%, even modest fees eat much of the edge). Timeouts (neither side hit within the horizon) are classified by the closing side, and an asymmetric target/stop changes all of these numbers — setting-dependent references, not absolutes.

Broken down by market regime

⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −3.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.

Regime	Win rate (+0.25% target)	EV (−3.0% stop)	Sample
Bear market	87%	-0.25%	N=393
Sideways	90%	-0.12%	N=384
Bull market	88%	-0.21%	N=400

Recent occurrences

How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).

Date	MFE	Result
2026-06-07	1.96%	✅ hit
2026-06-08	4.73%	✅ hit
2026-06-11	1.2%	✅ hit
2026-06-13	0.96%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-06-20	1.39%	✅ hit
2026-06-22	4.21%	✅ hit
2026-06-26	3.36%	✅ hit
2026-06-27	2.72%	✅ hit

🦫 See whether this signal is live right now — and verified odds for other signals and combos — on win-rate picks. Cut trading costs with fee cashback.

Data: full history since 2017 · 19448 bars · ~11.0/month · win rate from the most recent 300 occurrences. For reference, not a prediction. A signal is a historical probability, not a guaranteed direction.

barobara.com · not a signal group — honest signal explainers

📬 Get free Telegram alerts →

A free morning briefing: market heat & chart combos — honest odds, not predictions