What is 3 bars up? — chart signal explained
This one counts how many candles in a row have closed higher than the candle before. Each close above the previous close adds one to the run; a down or flat close resets the count to zero.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
It turns on when three or more consecutive candles close above the previous close, on whatever timeframe you're viewing — on an hourly chart, that's three hourly candles rising back to back. It stays on for as long as the run continues.
How traders usually read it
One camp takes it as steady buying pressure — a sign the mood is turning brighter. The other camp sees three closes up with no pause and starts suspecting the move is due for a breather.
What to watch out for
The size of each gain doesn't factor in at all — three tiny upticks fire the signal the same as three big rallies. In a strong market it can stay lit for a long stretch, while in a feeble bounce it can flip off the moment it appears. The signal alone can't tell you which market you're in.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1d)
The common reading is a drop — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 57 times on BTC 1d; across the most recent 57, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 46% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 39%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 46% | -0.02% |
| ±0.5% | 44% | -0.06% |
| ±0.75% | 37% | -0.20% |
| ±1% | 39% | -0.22% |
| ±1.5% | 42% | -0.24% |
| ±2% | 42% | -0.32% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −5.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−5.0% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear market | 94% | -0.12% | N=18 |
| Sideways | 83% | -0.70% | N=18 |
| Bull market | 71% | -1.33% | N=21 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | 20.39% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-12-09 | 15.91% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-01-03 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-03-15 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-04-17 | 6.24% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-06 | 3.31% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-05-10 | 4.22% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-05-30 | 21.68% | ✅ hit |
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