What is Below lower Bollinger? — chart signal explained
Bollinger Bands take the average price of the last 20 candles as a middle line, then draw a band above and below it, each set two standard deviations away — roughly twice the size of a typical price wiggle. Price spends most of its time inside those bands, so stepping outside them means the move was bigger than usual.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
On Barobara, this signal lights up when a candle closes below the lower band — that is, more than two standard deviations under the 20-candle average.
How traders usually read it
Many traders read a close below the lower band as 'this drop went too far, too fast' and hope for a snap back toward the middle of the band. In sideways markets especially, price tends to poke outside the band and slip right back in, so people watch for that return trip.
What to watch out for
In a strong downtrend, price can ride the lower band — or stay beneath it — for a long stretch while it keeps falling, something traders call 'walking the band.' Treating every break below the band as a bottom is how people end up catching a falling knife.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1d)
The common reading is a bounce (up) — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 26 times on BTC 1d; across the most recent 26, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 62% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 35%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 62% | +0.06% |
| ±0.5% | 50% | +0.00% |
| ±0.75% | 54% | +0.06% |
| ±1% | 35% | -0.30% |
| ±1.5% | 42% | -0.24% |
| ±2% | 38% | -0.48% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −5.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−5.0% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear market | 55% | -2.21% | N=11 |
| Sideways | 62% | -1.79% | N=8 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-06-05 | 19.27% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-06-21 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-09-25 | 19.2% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-11-03 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-01-20 | 4.39% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-01-31 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-02-05 | 17.8% | ✅ hit |
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