Does CCI overbought really mean a drop?

That is the common reading. This signal has fired 670 times on BTC 1h; across the most recent 300, price hit +0.25% first about 49% of the time. A historical probability, not a guarantee.

← Win-rate picks

What is CCI overbought? — chart signal explained

CCI gauges how far the price has jumped above its usual territory. For each bar it takes the average of the high, low, and close, then compares how far that value sits from the 20-bar average, scaled by how much the price normally fluctuates. The higher the positive reading, the further above its usual range the price has stretched.

See this signal live now →

When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria

It fires when the 20-bar CCI rises above +100.

How traders usually read it

Above +100 is commonly seen as a stretch too far too fast, so many traders expect the price to pause or give some back. Interestingly, there's an opposite school of thought: trend-following traders sometimes treat a break above +100 as a sign that a strong move is just getting started.

What to watch out for

When an uptrend is powerful, CCI can stay above +100 for a long stretch while the price keeps climbing. So this signal firing doesn't mean a drop is coming — it might just as well be evidence of strong momentum, and the signal alone can't tell you which.

What the data actually shows (BTC 1h)

The common reading is a drop — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 670 times on BTC 1h; across the most recent 300, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 49% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 51%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.

Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)

Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.

Target = stop (±)	Win rate (+ first)	EV (before fees)
±0.25%	49%	-0.01%
±0.5%	46%	-0.04%
±0.75%	49%	-0.02%
±1%	51%	+0.02%
±1.5%	49%	-0.03%
±2%	47%	-0.12%

📐 How to read this. EV assumes a symmetric ±X% target and stop: EV = target × (win rate − loss rate), so any win rate above 50% gives a positive EV. Fees are NOT included — they differ by exchange and order type (maker/taker). In reality fees come off the top, and the smaller the target, the bigger the bite fees take (at ±0.25%, even modest fees eat much of the edge). Timeouts (neither side hit within the horizon) are classified by the closing side, and an asymmetric target/stop changes all of these numbers — setting-dependent references, not absolutes.

Broken down by market regime

⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −2.5% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.

Regime	Win rate (+0.25% target)	EV (−2.5% stop)	Sample
Bear market	88%	-0.15%	N=190
Sideways	88%	-0.15%	N=218
Bull market	84%	-0.28%	N=250

Recent occurrences

How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).

Date	MFE	Result
2026-06-22	2.99%	✅ hit
2026-06-22	6.32%	✅ hit
2026-06-26	0.46%	✅ hit
2026-06-26	2.27%	✅ hit
2026-06-29	5.94%	✅ hit
2026-07-01	1.39%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-07-01	2.42%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-07-02	0.59%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped

🦫 See whether this signal is live right now — and verified odds for other signals and combos — on win-rate picks. Cut trading costs with fee cashback.

Data: full history since 2017 · 21985 bars · ~21.9/month · win rate from the most recent 300 occurrences. For reference, not a prediction. A signal is a historical probability, not a guaranteed direction.

barobara.com · not a signal group — honest signal explainers

📬 Get free Telegram alerts →

A free morning briefing: market heat & chart combos — honest odds, not predictions