What is CCI oversold? — chart signal explained
CCI measures how far a bar's typical price (the average of its high, low, and close) has strayed from the average of the last 20 bars. Because the calculation accounts for how much the price normally wobbles, a reading near 0 means the price is around its average, while a deeply negative reading means it has dropped well outside its usual range.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
It fires when the 20-bar CCI falls below -100.
How traders usually read it
Below -100, the price has strayed far below its usual path, so many traders hope for a bounce back toward the average. The underlying idea is roughly "it's fallen too far too fast — surely it takes a breather at some point."
What to watch out for
In a strong downtrend, CCI can sit below -100 while the price just keeps falling. "Oversold" doesn't mean cheap — it only means the price is outside its usual range — so whether the selling pressure has actually faded needs to be checked separately.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1d)
The common reading is a bounce (up) — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 23 times on BTC 1d; across the most recent 23, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 52% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 52%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 52% | +0.01% |
| ±0.5% | 57% | +0.07% |
| ±0.75% | 52% | +0.03% |
| ±1% | 52% | +0.04% |
| ±1.5% | 43% | -0.21% |
| ±2% | 30% | -0.80% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −5.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−5.0% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear market | 64% | -1.70% | N=14 |
| Sideways | 50% | -2.45% | N=8 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-06-21 | 4.93% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-11-03 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-11-14 | 3.77% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-12-17 | 3.31% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-12-25 | 8.82% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-01-30 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-03-27 | 1.29% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
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