What is MACD bear cross? — chart signal explained
MACD turns a simple idea into a number: compare a fast average of the last 12 candles with a slower one of the last 26, and watch which way the gap is opening. Subtracting a 9-candle average of that gap (the signal line) gives the histogram — bars above zero say buyers have the momentum, bars below zero say sellers do.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
It fires when the MACD histogram drops below zero on the current candle after being at or above zero on the previous one — the exact mirror image of the MACD bull cross.
How traders usually read it
Traders usually read it as upward momentum starting to stall, and many use it as a heads-up that price could drift lower from here.
What to watch out for
It's a lagging signal that often only appears after a decent drop, so selling the moment it fires can mean selling near a short-term low. It also fires during brief pauses inside strong uptrends, only to reverse right back.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1h)
The common reading is a drop — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 870 times on BTC 1h; across the most recent 300, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 48% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 46%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 48% | -0.01% |
| ±0.5% | 47% | -0.03% |
| ±0.75% | 46% | -0.06% |
| ±1% | 46% | -0.08% |
| ±1.5% | 46% | -0.12% |
| ±2% | 49% | -0.04% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −2.5% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−2.5% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear market | 85% | -0.21% | N=267 |
| Sideways | 87% | -0.14% | N=282 |
| Bull market | 91% | -0.07% | N=290 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | 1.67% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-28 | 1.66% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-28 | 1.45% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-30 | 2.05% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-07-01 | 0.39% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-07-02 | 0.09% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-07-02 | 0.08% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-07-02 | 0.42% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
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