What is Stoch oversold? — chart signal explained
The stochastic oscillator scores where the current price sits within its recent trading range, on a scale of 0 to 100. Take the highest and lowest prices of a recent stretch as the two endpoints: a close near that low scores close to 0, and a close near that high scores close to 100.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
On Barobara, this signal fires when the stochastic value, computed from the high-low range of the last 14 candles, drops below 20 — meaning price is sitting in the bottom fifth of its recent range.
How traders usually read it
Readings under 20 are commonly taken to mean the market was sold hard in a short stretch, so many traders watch for a possible bounce. It's especially popular for gauging short-term lows in sideways, range-bound markets.
What to watch out for
In a strong downtrend, the indicator can stay pinned in oversold territory while price just keeps falling. It also only measures position within the last 14 candles' range — if that whole range keeps sliding lower, the signal can stay lit for a long time without any bounce showing up.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1d)
The common reading is a bounce (up) — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 59 times on BTC 1d; across the most recent 59, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 56% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 51%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 56% | +0.03% |
| ±0.5% | 49% | -0.01% |
| ±0.75% | 46% | -0.06% |
| ±1% | 51% | +0.02% |
| ±1.5% | 41% | -0.27% |
| ±2% | 39% | -0.44% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −5.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−5.0% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear market | 62% | -1.83% | N=21 |
| Sideways | 75% | -1.14% | N=20 |
| Bull market | 67% | -1.58% | N=15 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | 0.86% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-04-04 | 6.15% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-04-28 | 5.56% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-17 | 0.08% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-05-24 | 1.09% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-02 | 3.09% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-10 | 17.91% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-21 | 3.48% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
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