What is Williams %R overbought? — chart signal explained
This indicator tracks where the current price sits relative to its recent high, on a scale from 0 down to -100. A close equal to the recent high reads 0, one equal to the recent low reads -100, and anything in between lands proportionally along that scale.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
The signal lights up when Williams %R over the last 14 candles climbs above -20, meaning price is just under the recent high — within the top 20% of its range.
How traders usually read it
With price pressing near its recent high, many traders read this as short-term overheating and expect the advance may stall or give some of it back. Some also use it to judge whether a move already looks stretched before jumping in.
What to watch out for
In a market that keeps printing new highs, this value staying above -20 is the natural state — the stronger the trend, the longer the signal stays on, and a drop doesn't follow every time. It's also effectively the same calculation as 'Stoch overbought,' so the two lighting up together shouldn't be counted as independent confirmation.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1h)
The common reading is a drop — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 1427 times on BTC 1h; across the most recent 300, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 49% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 52%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 49% | -0.01% |
| ±0.5% | 52% | +0.02% |
| ±0.75% | 52% | +0.03% |
| ±1% | 52% | +0.04% |
| ±1.5% | 47% | -0.09% |
| ±2% | 46% | -0.16% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −2.5% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−2.5% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear market | 89% | -0.10% | N=485 |
| Sideways | 88% | -0.13% | N=443 |
| Bull market | 87% | -0.18% | N=451 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | 2.01% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-07-02 | 0.39% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-07-03 | 0.21% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-07-03 | 0.4% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-07-03 | 0.5% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-07-03 | 0.28% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-07-03 | 1.06% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-07-04 | 0.89% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
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