Does Williams %R oversold really mean a bounce (up)?

That is the common reading. This signal has fired 61 times on BTC 1d; across the most recent 61, price hit +0.25% first about 61% of the time. A historical probability, not a guarantee.

← Win-rate picks

What is Williams %R oversold? — chart signal explained

Williams %R measures how far price has pulled away from its recent high. It's quoted on an unusual scale running from 0 down to -100: near 0 means price is right at the recent high, near -100 means it's right at the recent low.

See this signal live now →

When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria

Barobara flags this signal when Williams %R, computed over the high-low range of the last 14 candles, falls below -80.

How traders usually read it

Below -80 means price is pressed right up against its recent lows, which many traders read as 'the selling may be mostly done' — a spot they watch for a possible short-term rebound.

What to watch out for

Williams %R is essentially the stochastic oscillator turned upside down — the math is the same — so on Barobara this signal and 'Stoch oversold' almost always fire together, and seeing both is not double the evidence. In a steep decline, the reading can also stay below -80 while the lows keep getting lower.

What the data actually shows (BTC 1d)

The common reading is a bounce (up) — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 61 times on BTC 1d; across the most recent 61, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 61% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 49%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.

Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)

Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.

Target = stop (±)	Win rate (+ first)	EV (before fees)
±0.25%	61%	+0.05%
±0.5%	59%	+0.09%
±0.75%	54%	+0.06%
±1%	49%	-0.02%
±1.5%	49%	-0.03%
±2%	43%	-0.28%

📐 How to read this. EV assumes a symmetric ±X% target and stop: EV = target × (win rate − loss rate), so any win rate above 50% gives a positive EV. Fees are NOT included — they differ by exchange and order type (maker/taker). In reality fees come off the top, and the smaller the target, the bigger the bite fees take (at ±0.25%, even modest fees eat much of the edge). Timeouts (neither side hit within the horizon) are classified by the closing side, and an asymmetric target/stop changes all of these numbers — setting-dependent references, not absolutes.

Broken down by market regime

⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −5.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.

Regime	Win rate (+0.25% target)	EV (−5.0% stop)	Sample
Bear market	72%	-1.27%	N=29
Sideways	56%	-2.16%	N=18
Bull market	92%	-0.26%	N=12

Recent occurrences

How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).

Date	MFE	Result
2026-01-29	0.0%	— 🔴 stopped
2026-02-11	8.58%	✅ hit
2026-02-23	18.46%	✅ hit
2026-03-26	0.81%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-04-28	5.87%	✅ hit
2026-05-13	2.69%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-05-15	0.31%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-05-27	1.07%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped

🦫 See whether this signal is live right now — and verified odds for other signals and combos — on win-rate picks. Cut trading costs with fee cashback.

Data: full history since 2017 · 917 bars · ~2.0/month · win rate from the most recent 61 occurrences. For reference, not a prediction. A signal is a historical probability, not a guaranteed direction.

barobara.com · not a signal group — honest signal explainers

📬 Get free Telegram alerts →

A free morning briefing: market heat & chart combos — honest odds, not predictions