What is Williams %R oversold? — chart signal explained
Williams %R measures how far price has pulled away from its recent high. It's quoted on an unusual scale running from 0 down to -100: near 0 means price is right at the recent high, near -100 means it's right at the recent low.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
Barobara flags this signal when Williams %R, computed over the high-low range of the last 14 candles, falls below -80.
How traders usually read it
Below -80 means price is pressed right up against its recent lows, which many traders read as 'the selling may be mostly done' — a spot they watch for a possible short-term rebound.
What to watch out for
Williams %R is essentially the stochastic oscillator turned upside down — the math is the same — so on Barobara this signal and 'Stoch oversold' almost always fire together, and seeing both is not double the evidence. In a steep decline, the reading can also stay below -80 while the lows keep getting lower.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1d)
The common reading is a bounce (up) — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 62 times on BTC 1d; across the most recent 62, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 53% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 52%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 53% | +0.02% |
| ±0.5% | 55% | +0.05% |
| ±0.75% | 53% | +0.05% |
| ±1% | 52% | +0.04% |
| ±1.5% | 40% | -0.30% |
| ±2% | 39% | -0.44% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −5.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−5.0% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear market | 56% | -2.14% | N=25 |
| Sideways | 71% | -1.36% | N=24 |
| Bull market | 58% | -2.01% | N=12 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | 20.73% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-03-26 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-04-01 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-04-06 | 13.12% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-04-28 | 10.4% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-17 | 3.24% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-22 | 3.67% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-05-26 | 1.34% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
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