Expected Value (EV)
EV is the single number that merges win rate and risk-reward. The math is simple: multiply the probability of winning by the average win, multiply the probability of losing by the average loss, and subtract. The result is 'if I repeat this trade, how much is left per attempt on average.'
In numbers: take a trade with a 60% win rate, +1% on wins, -2% on losses. EV = 0.6 × 1% − 0.4 × 2% = -0.2%. Despite the 60% win rate, this structure loses money on average the more you repeat it. Now flip it: 40% win rate, +3% on wins, -1% on losses. EV = 0.4 × 3% − 0.6 × 1% = +0.6%. Low win rate, but repetition leaves money on average.
You have to subtract fees and slippage to get the real EV. A round trip pays fees both ways plus slippage, so a thin +0.1% in a table can vanish once costs are paid. That's why judging on pre-cost EV alone is a mistake.
Positive EV doesn't mean winning every time, either. EV is the average over hundreds of repetitions — losing ten in a row inside a positive-EV strategy is a normal occurrence. Without the money management to survive those stretches, the account dies before the average ever arrives.
Finally, the most important caveat: every EV we can compute is a past average computed from past data. When the market's character changes, EV changes with it. A positive historical EV is a reference, not a promise of future profit.
What the data actually shows
EV is the core number on Barobara's signal pages. For each profit target (TP) we publish the historical win rate and expected value side by side — and it's common for combinations with impressive-looking 80–90% win rates to have negative EV, because they win small many times and lose big once. See it for yourself on pages like MACD bullish cross (1h). Layer fees and slippage on top and real results come out a bit worse than the table. Fees are at the fee comparison; all signals are at the signal stats.
Common misconceptions
'Positive EV means winning every time?' No. EV is only the average over many repetitions — losing streaks arrive as a normal part of positive-EV trading. Short-run results are heavily driven by luck.
'EV computed from past data is my future return?' There's no guarantee the past distribution holds in the future. When the market environment shifts, EV shifts. This is why Barobara attaches the caveat 'a past record, not a prediction' to every number.
FAQ
Q. Which matters more, win rate or EV?
What actually accumulates in your account is EV. Win rate is just one ingredient in computing it. A 90% win rate with negative EV loses the more you repeat it; a 40% win rate with positive EV comes out ahead on average.
Q. Can I just follow every positive-EV signal?
First check that the sample size (N) is big enough, that it stays positive after fees and slippage, and that it wasn't only good in one specific period. Even if it passes all that, it's still a past distribution — no guarantee about the future.