MACD
MACD's raw ingredients are two moving averages: a fast one weighted toward the last 12 candles and a slow one toward the last 26. When price starts rising, the fast line reacts first and opens a gap above the slow line; when price starts falling, the gap opens downward. MACD is that gap. For example, if the 12-candle average is 100.3 million won and the 26-candle average is 100 million, MACD is +300,000 won.
Then it goes one level deeper. The 9-candle average of the MACD value itself is called the signal line, and MACD minus the signal line is drawn as a bar chart (the histogram). Bars climbing above 0 read as the upward force gaining the upper hand; bars sinking below 0, the downward force taking over.
The moment the histogram crosses from below 0 to above is the bullish cross (often called a golden cross), and dropping from above 0 to below is the bearish cross (a death cross). Many traders read the bullish cross as 'the moment the force turns upward' and the bearish cross as 'the moment the upward force breaks,' and position for what follows.
MACD's congenital weakness: it's late. Built as an average of an average of an average, the bullish cross often prints after price has already climbed a good way. Selling a bearish cross after a sharp drop can mean selling right near a short-term bottom.
The other weakness is sideways markets. When price chops without direction, the bars flip back and forth around the zero line, alternating bullish and bearish crosses — and following the signals there gets you fooled again and again. MACD was born in trending markets, and this trait comes with the territory.
What the data actually shows
Does a MACD bullish cross really mean up, and a bearish cross really mean down? Barobara counts every past instance of these signals firing on the Bitcoin chart and publishes the outcome distribution as-is. Bottom line: mostly close to a coin flip — being famous didn't make it especially accurate. See for yourself: MACD bullish cross (1h) actual results, MACD bearish cross (1h) actual results, and on a longer horizon, the daily bullish cross. Comparison with other signals is in the setup catalog.Common misconceptions
'A bullish cross means the rally is starting' is everywhere — but count the past data and price rose after a bullish cross about as often as it fell. In sideways markets especially, bullish and bearish crosses alternate days apart and both keep being wrong. On the flip side, throwing MACD away because 'it's always late anyway' is hasty too. MACD isn't a predictor — it's a summary of which way the force is currently tilted, and at that job it's accurate. The problem isn't the tool; it's expecting the tool to predict.
FAQ
Q. A MACD bullish cross just printed — should I get in?
A bullish cross is a summary of the recent past — 'the downward tilt has turned upward' — not an announcement of a rise to come. And since the indicator prints late, price has usually already moved by the time it appears. Check this signal's actual historical record first.
Q. What do the numbers 12, 26, and 9 mean?
They're conventional settings proposed in the 1970s for stock markets (roughly two weeks, one month, and half of that). They weren't specially tuned for a 24/7 crypto market, and changing them doesn't create predictive power. Most charting apps ship this combination as the default.