Does 20-bar low breakdown really mean a drop?

That is the common reading. This signal has fired 45 times on BTC 1h; across the most recent 45, price hit +0.25% first about 53% of the time. A historical probability, not a guarantee.

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What is 20-bar low breakdown? — chart signal explained

This one also skips the indicators and watches price directly. Take the lowest price of the last 20 bars as a floor, and check whether the current close has fallen through it. It means a floor that held for a while has finally given way.

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When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria

It fires when the close touches or drops below the lowest low of the last 20 bars on barobara.

How traders usually read it

A broken floor is read as the moment buyers stopped defending. Many traders turn cautious, expecting the slide to continue after a fresh low — while bargain hunters watch the same spot hoping for an oversold bounce.

What to watch out for

Fake breakdowns are frequent too — price dips just under the floor and snaps right back. Some read this as big players pushing through the lows to scoop up stop-loss orders. A broken low by itself doesn't mean the fall goes on.

What the data actually shows (BTC 1h)

The common reading is a drop — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 45 times on BTC 1h; across the most recent 45, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 53% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 40%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.

Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)

Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.

Target = stop (±)	Win rate (+ first)	EV (before fees)
±0.25%	53%	+0.02%
±0.5%	53%	+0.03%
±0.75%	42%	-0.12%
±1%	40%	-0.20%
±1.5%	44%	-0.18%
±2%	42%	-0.32%

📐 How to read this. EV assumes a symmetric ±X% target and stop: EV = target × (win rate − loss rate), so any win rate above 50% gives a positive EV. Fees are NOT included — they differ by exchange and order type (maker/taker). In reality fees come off the top, and the smaller the target, the bigger the bite fees take (at ±0.25%, even modest fees eat much of the edge). Timeouts (neither side hit within the horizon) are classified by the closing side, and an asymmetric target/stop changes all of these numbers — setting-dependent references, not absolutes.

Broken down by market regime

⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −2.5% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.

Regime	Win rate (+0.25% target)	EV (−2.5% stop)	Sample
Bear market	94%	+0.01%	N=17
Sideways	94%	+0.06%	N=16
Bull market	92%	-0.06%	N=12

Recent occurrences

How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).

Date	MFE	Result
2026-03-21	3.84%	✅ hit
2026-04-04	0.24%	—
2026-04-12	1.49%	✅ hit
2026-04-12	1.56%	✅ hit
2026-04-28	1.18%	✅ hit
2026-05-28	2.39%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-05-28	0.99%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-06-13	1.13%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped

🦫 See whether this signal is live right now — and verified odds for other signals and combos — on win-rate picks. Cut trading costs with fee cashback.

Data: full history since 2017 · 22041 bars · ~1.5/month · win rate from the most recent 45 occurrences. For reference, not a prediction. A signal is a historical probability, not a guaranteed direction.

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