What is 20-bar low breakdown? — chart signal explained
This one also skips the indicators and watches price directly. Take the lowest price of the last 20 bars as a floor, and check whether the current close has fallen through it. It means a floor that held for a while has finally given way.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
It fires when the close touches or drops below the lowest low of the last 20 bars on barobara.
How traders usually read it
A broken floor is read as the moment buyers stopped defending. Many traders turn cautious, expecting the slide to continue after a fresh low — while bargain hunters watch the same spot hoping for an oversold bounce.
What to watch out for
Fake breakdowns are frequent too — price dips just under the floor and snaps right back. Some read this as big players pushing through the lows to scoop up stop-loss orders. A broken low by itself doesn't mean the fall goes on.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1h)
The common reading is a drop — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 9 times on BTC 1h; across the most recent 9, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 67% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 67%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 67% | +0.09% |
| ±0.5% | 78% | +0.28% |
| ±0.75% | 78% | +0.42% |
| ±1% | 67% | +0.34% |
| ±1.5% | 56% | +0.18% |
| ±2% | 56% | +0.24% |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-10 | 0.11% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2024-06-17 | 7.48% | ✅ hit |
| 2024-08-01 | 4.13% | ✅ hit |
| 2024-09-06 | 2.64% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-01-08 | 0.06% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-04-12 | 0.29% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-01-08 | 0.74% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-04-06 | 1.07% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
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