What is 20-bar low breakdown? — chart signal explained
This one also skips the indicators and watches price directly. Take the lowest price of the last 20 bars as a floor, and check whether the current close has fallen through it. It means a floor that held for a while has finally given way.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
It fires when the close touches or drops below the lowest low of the last 20 bars on barobara.
How traders usually read it
A broken floor is read as the moment buyers stopped defending. Many traders turn cautious, expecting the slide to continue after a fresh low — while bargain hunters watch the same spot hoping for an oversold bounce.
What to watch out for
Fake breakdowns are frequent too — price dips just under the floor and snaps right back. Some read this as big players pushing through the lows to scoop up stop-loss orders. A broken low by itself doesn't mean the fall goes on.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1h)
The common reading is a drop — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 18 times on BTC 1h; across the most recent 18, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 67% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 39%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 67% | +0.09% |
| ±0.5% | 67% | +0.17% |
| ±0.75% | 50% | +0.00% |
| ±1% | 39% | -0.22% |
| ±1.5% | 56% | +0.18% |
| ±2% | 50% | +0.00% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −2.5% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−2.5% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear market | 60% | -0.93% | N=10 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-28 | 4.85% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-04-02 | 0.22% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-04-21 | 0.82% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-06-26 | 2.1% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-07-01 | 1.44% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-12-31 | 1.25% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-02-03 | 2.76% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-04-08 | 3.12% | ✅ hit |
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