Does BTC really go up when 3 bars down fires? — verified win rate
After a 3 bars down signal on BTC 1d, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 93% of the 185 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 73% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call an upside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is 3 bars down?
This flags three or more red (down) bars in a row, meaning price has closed lower several times straight. Some traders see a losing streak as either weakness continuing or a spot stretched enough to bounce. Neither is certain — a streak can extend further or reverse without warning.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 84% | -0.68% |
| +0.5% | 83% | -0.53% |
| +0.75% | 80% | -0.45% |
| +1.0% | 76% | -0.48% |
| +1.25% | 73% | -0.45% |
| +1.5% | 69% | -0.51% |
| +1.75% | 68% | -0.41% |
| +2.0% | 66% | -0.36% |
| +2.5% | 61% | -0.38% |
| +3.0% | 58% | -0.28% |
| +4.0% | 54% | -0.10% |
| +5.0% | 49% | -0.15% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 81% | N=70 |
| 횡보장 | 89% | N=65 |
| 상승장 | 81% | N=48 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | 3.0% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-03-28 | 9.62% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-04-29 | 9.33% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-13 | 3.45% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-05-17 | 0.96% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-28 | 1.22% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-02 | 1.13% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-10 | 9.4% | ✅ hit |