Does BTC really go up when 3 bars down fires? — verified win rate
After a 3 bars down signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 57% of the 4309 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 47% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call an upside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is 3 bars down?
This flags three or more red (down) bars in a row, meaning price has closed lower several times straight. Some traders see a losing streak as either weakness continuing or a spot stretched enough to bounce. Neither is certain — a streak can extend further or reverse without warning.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 89% | -0.11% |
| +0.5% | 79% | -0.10% |
| +0.75% | 72% | -0.10% |
| +1.0% | 65% | -0.12% |
| +1.25% | 60% | -0.13% |
| +1.5% | 57% | -0.12% |
| +1.75% | 55% | -0.11% |
| +2.0% | 52% | -0.12% |
| +2.5% | 49% | -0.11% |
| +3.0% | 48% | -0.11% |
| +4.0% | 46% | -0.10% |
| +5.0% | 45% | -0.07% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 87% | N=1390 |
| 횡보장 | 89% | N=1477 |
| 상승장 | 89% | N=1407 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | 1.83% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-26 | 2.14% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-26 | 2.13% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-28 | 1.25% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-29 | 1.57% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-29 | 1.85% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-30 | 0.35% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-30 | 0.18% | — |