Does BTC really go down when 3 bars up fires? — verified win rate
After a 3 bars up signal on BTC 1d, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 88% of the 185 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 62% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call a downside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is 3 bars up?
This flags three or more green (up) bars in a row, meaning price has closed higher several times straight. People may read the streak as momentum building or as a move due for a rest. Either way it's not reliable — the run can keep going or flip lower at any point.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 81% | -0.82% |
| +0.5% | 79% | -0.71% |
| +0.75% | 77% | -0.66% |
| +1.0% | 71% | -0.83% |
| +1.25% | 69% | -0.75% |
| +1.5% | 64% | -0.87% |
| +1.75% | 63% | -0.77% |
| +2.0% | 61% | -0.75% |
| +2.5% | 57% | -0.70% |
| +3.0% | 55% | -0.63% |
| +4.0% | 49% | -0.66% |
| +5.0% | 45% | -0.47% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 81% | N=48 |
| 횡보장 | 80% | N=61 |
| 상승장 | 81% | N=74 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | 1.4% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-04-05 | 1.06% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-04-11 | 3.47% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-04-17 | 4.34% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-04-22 | 4.15% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-02 | 0.77% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-05-06 | 4.67% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-10 | 7.49% | ✅ hit |