Does BTC really go down when 3 bars up fires? — verified win rate
After a 3 bars up signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 51% of the 4748 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 44% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call a downside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is 3 bars up?
This flags three or more green (up) bars in a row, meaning price has closed higher several times straight. People may read the streak as momentum building or as a move due for a rest. Either way it's not reliable — the run can keep going or flip lower at any point.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 89% | -0.09% |
| +0.5% | 80% | -0.08% |
| +0.75% | 72% | -0.07% |
| +1.0% | 66% | -0.09% |
| +1.25% | 60% | -0.10% |
| +1.5% | 57% | -0.11% |
| +1.75% | 54% | -0.10% |
| +2.0% | 52% | -0.09% |
| +2.5% | 50% | -0.08% |
| +3.0% | 48% | -0.08% |
| +4.0% | 46% | -0.09% |
| +5.0% | 45% | -0.08% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 90% | N=1515 |
| 횡보장 | 87% | N=1517 |
| 상승장 | 89% | N=1678 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | 3.46% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-23 | 5.59% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-24 | 6.02% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-24 | 4.66% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-25 | 5.66% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-26 | 3.36% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-26 | 0.4% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-27 | 1.42% | ✅ hit |