What is 5 bars down? — chart signal explained
Same counting method as the 3-bar version, but with a higher bar to clear: it takes five straight candles closing lower than the one before. That makes it rarer, and more of a standout event when it shows up.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
It fires when five or more consecutive candles close below the previous close; a single up or flat close resets the count. By definition, whenever this signal is on, the 3-bar down signal is on as well.
How traders usually read it
After five straight down closes, some traders start hunting for a bottom, expecting the selling to be exhausted and a bounce to be overdue. Others treat a run this long as hard evidence that the market is genuinely weak.
What to watch out for
The 'surely this is the bottom' instinct is exactly where this signal turns dangerous. In sharp sell-offs, runs of six, seven, or more really do happen — there's nothing special about the number five that stops a decline. It also fires rarely, so the historical sample behind it is small.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1d)
The common reading is a bounce (up) — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 34 times on BTC 1d; across the most recent 34, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 50% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 53%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 50% | +0.00% |
| ±0.5% | 56% | +0.06% |
| ±0.75% | 56% | +0.09% |
| ±1% | 53% | +0.06% |
| ±1.5% | 56% | +0.18% |
| ±2% | 53% | +0.12% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −5.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−5.0% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear market | 77% | -1.04% | N=13 |
| Sideways | 62% | -1.84% | N=13 |
| Bull market | 62% | -1.79% | N=8 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-12 | 13.53% | ✅ hit |
| 2024-06-21 | 0.63% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2024-11-03 | 35.61% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-02-08 | 2.47% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-03-10 | 11.27% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-08-01 | 7.98% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-01-10 | 8.2% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-01-19 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |