What is 5 bars up? — chart signal explained
A stricter version of the 3-bar up signal: it watches for five rising candles in a row. Each close above the previous one extends the run, and the signal catches the moment the run reaches five.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
It lights up once five or more candles in a row close higher than the close before them. A single down or unchanged close breaks the run, and the count starts over from one.
How traders usually read it
Five straight up closes suggests buyers are firmly in charge, so many traders take it as a trend picking up steam. Just as many, though, see a run that long as a hint that a pullback is getting close — and think twice before chasing it.
What to watch out for
Its built-in weakness: by the time it fires, the move is already five candles old. Strong markets often keep running afterward, but sometimes those five candles were the final push — and the signal can't tell the difference. It also triggers the same whether each candle rose a lot or barely at all.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1h)
The common reading is a drop — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 282 times on BTC 1h; across the most recent 282, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 47% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 49%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 47% | -0.02% |
| ±0.5% | 46% | -0.04% |
| ±0.75% | 47% | -0.05% |
| ±1% | 49% | -0.02% |
| ±1.5% | 46% | -0.12% |
| ±2% | 47% | -0.12% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −2.5% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−2.5% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear market | 89% | -0.14% | N=97 |
| Sideways | 93% | -0.01% | N=81 |
| Bull market | 91% | -0.07% | N=92 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | 0.43% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-15 | 0.04% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-20 | 1.55% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-21 | 2.73% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-24 | 7.54% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-26 | 2.84% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-29 | 1.12% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-29 | 5.37% | ✅ hit |
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