Does BTC really go down when Bearish engulfing fires? — verified win rate
After a Bearish engulfing signal on BTC 1d, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 91% of the 277 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 69% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call a downside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is Bearish engulfing?
A bearish engulfing is when a red (down) candle fully swallows the previous green (up) candle. It suggests sellers have overpowered buyers, which people often read as a possible turn downward. Keep in mind it can easily fail, and price sometimes pushes higher right after.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 86% | -0.56% |
| +0.5% | 83% | -0.51% |
| +0.75% | 81% | -0.45% |
| +1.0% | 77% | -0.44% |
| +1.25% | 75% | -0.35% |
| +1.5% | 74% | -0.25% |
| +1.75% | 71% | -0.22% |
| +2.0% | 68% | -0.24% |
| +2.5% | 63% | -0.22% |
| +3.0% | 61% | -0.04% |
| +4.0% | 56% | +0.06% |
| +5.0% | 48% | -0.19% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 82% | N=99 |
| 횡보장 | 89% | N=92 |
| 상승장 | 89% | N=81 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-04-24 | 3.23% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-04-27 | 3.15% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-05-07 | 4.09% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-15 | 6.1% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-22 | 6.42% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-26 | 22.12% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-16 | 11.51% | ✅ hit |