Does Bearish engulfing really mean a drop?

That is the common reading. This signal has fired 94 times on NEAR 1d; across the most recent 94, price hit +0.25% first about 41% of the time. A historical probability, not a guarantee.

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What is Bearish engulfing? — chart signal explained

The same tug-of-war idea, mirrored. A green (up) candle is immediately followed by a red (down) candle whose body swallows the entire green body.

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When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria

The signal fires when the prior candle is green, the current one is red, and the red body covers the green one completely — opening at or above the prior close and closing at or below the prior open.

How traders usually read it

The usual reading: buyers lifted the price, and sellers slammed it right back down within a single candle. Many traders take that as an early sign a rally could be losing steam.

What to watch out for

In a strong uptrend this shape often just marks a one-day pause before the climb resumes. A big candle also simply means volatility picked up, so it can end up being a choppiness warning rather than a turn. And since only bodies are compared, long-wicked candles may not match the impression the chart gives.

What the data actually shows (NEAR 1d)

The common reading is a drop — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 94 times on NEAR 1d; across the most recent 94, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 41% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 41%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.

Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)

Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.

Target = stop (±)	Win rate (+ first)	EV (before fees)
±0.25%	41%	-0.05%
±0.5%	52%	+0.02%
±0.75%	50%	+0.00%
±1%	41%	-0.18%
±1.5%	45%	-0.15%
±2%	47%	-0.12%

📐 How to read this. EV assumes a symmetric ±X% target and stop: EV = target × (win rate − loss rate), so any win rate above 50% gives a positive EV. Fees are NOT included — they differ by exchange and order type (maker/taker). In reality fees come off the top, and the smaller the target, the bigger the bite fees take (at ±0.25%, even modest fees eat much of the edge). Timeouts (neither side hit within the horizon) are classified by the closing side, and an asymmetric target/stop changes all of these numbers — setting-dependent references, not absolutes.

Broken down by market regime

⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −5.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.

Regime	Win rate (+0.25% target)	EV (−5.0% stop)	Sample
Bear market	78%	-0.97%	N=23
Sideways	80%	-0.88%	N=30
Bull market	75%	-1.14%	N=36

Recent occurrences

How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).

Date	MFE	Result
2026-05-03	2.35%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-06-04	17.59%	✅ hit
2026-06-21	18.03%	✅ hit
2026-06-30	0.0%	— 🔴 stopped
2026-07-07	6.83%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-07-16	4.33%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-07-19	0.94%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-07-24	13.01%	✅ hit

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Data: full history · 968 bars · ~2.9/month · win rate from the most recent 94 occurrences. For reference, not a prediction. A signal is a historical probability, not a guaranteed direction.

barobara.com · not a signal group — honest signal explainers

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