Does BTC really go up when Bullish engulfing fires? — verified win rate
After a Bullish engulfing signal on BTC 1d, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 90% of the 305 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 62% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call an upside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is Bullish engulfing?
A bullish engulfing is when a green (up) candle is big enough to completely swallow the previous red (down) candle. It suggests buyers have taken over from sellers, which many read as a possible shift upward. It's not a promise, though — price often rolls back over and heads lower instead.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 86% | -0.57% |
| +0.5% | 83% | -0.46% |
| +0.75% | 79% | -0.46% |
| +1.0% | 76% | -0.48% |
| +1.25% | 74% | -0.41% |
| +1.5% | 72% | -0.35% |
| +1.75% | 70% | -0.30% |
| +2.0% | 68% | -0.22% |
| +2.5% | 66% | -0.06% |
| +3.0% | 60% | -0.14% |
| +4.0% | 54% | -0.13% |
| +5.0% | 51% | +0.10% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 88% | N=106 |
| 횡보장 | 85% | N=96 |
| 상승장 | 83% | N=100 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | 8.91% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-04-15 | 6.23% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-04-30 | 8.52% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-14 | 0.71% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-05-20 | 0.84% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-05-30 | 0.53% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-07 | 6.25% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-11 | 5.76% | ✅ hit |