Does BTC really go up when Bullish engulfing fires? — verified win rate
After a Bullish engulfing signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 55% of the 6912 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 51% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call an upside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is Bullish engulfing?
A bullish engulfing is when a green (up) candle is big enough to completely swallow the previous red (down) candle. It suggests buyers have taken over from sellers, which many read as a possible shift upward. It's not a promise, though — price often rolls back over and heads lower instead.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 88% | -0.09% |
| +0.5% | 78% | -0.09% |
| +0.75% | 71% | -0.08% |
| +1.0% | 65% | -0.07% |
| +1.25% | 60% | -0.09% |
| +1.5% | 56% | -0.08% |
| +1.75% | 53% | -0.08% |
| +2.0% | 51% | -0.07% |
| +2.5% | 49% | -0.06% |
| +3.0% | 47% | -0.04% |
| +4.0% | 45% | -0.01% |
| +5.0% | 45% | +0.02% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 88% | N=2253 |
| 횡보장 | 87% | N=2281 |
| 상승장 | 89% | N=2304 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | 0.95% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-27 | 0.85% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-28 | 0.19% | — |
| 2026-06-28 | 1.88% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-28 | 2.02% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-29 | 1.71% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-29 | 1.44% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-29 | 0.25% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |