What is EMA death cross? — chart signal explained
This signal watches how two recency-weighted moving averages (EMAs) — one spanning 20 candles, one spanning 50 — sit relative to each other. Fast line above slow line is generally taken as an up-leaning market; fast below slow, a down-leaning one.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
It fires on the first candle where the 20-candle EMA slips below the 50-candle EMA, after sitting at or above it on the previous candle.
How traders usually read it
With the short-term trend dipping under the long-term one, it's widely read as a warning that the broader direction may be turning down. It's well-known enough that 'death cross' headlines regularly make the financial news.
What to watch out for
It shows up late, only after a sizable decline — so it's not rare for the signal to coincide with a short-term bottom. If the drop ends quickly, a golden cross follows soon after, and that round trip can hurt you on both sides.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1d)
The common reading is a drop — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 25 times on BTC 1d; across the most recent 25, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 80% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 48%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 80% | +0.15% |
| ±0.5% | 60% | +0.10% |
| ±0.75% | 48% | -0.03% |
| ±1% | 48% | -0.04% |
| ±1.5% | 52% | +0.06% |
| ±2% | 40% | -0.40% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −5.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−5.0% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear market | 92% | -0.23% | N=13 |
| Sideways | 82% | -0.78% | N=11 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-17 | 4.97% | ✅ hit |
| 2024-05-01 | 2.49% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2024-06-22 | 9.12% | ✅ hit |
| 2024-08-05 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-02-17 | 14.12% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-08-29 | 1.04% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-09-25 | 0.34% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-10-17 | 0.31% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |