Does BTC really go down when EMA death cross fires? — verified win rate
After a EMA death cross signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 61% of the 694 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 53% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call a downside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is EMA death cross?
EMAs are moving averages that lean on recent prices, and a death cross is when the faster 20-EMA crosses below the slower 50-EMA. It's commonly read as a shift toward a downtrend. Because it lags, it often triggers late and can flip back, so price sometimes bounces right after.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 90% | -0.05% |
| +0.5% | 77% | -0.12% |
| +0.75% | 68% | -0.14% |
| +1.0% | 63% | -0.12% |
| +1.25% | 58% | -0.10% |
| +1.5% | 55% | -0.08% |
| +1.75% | 52% | -0.05% |
| +2.0% | 50% | -0.05% |
| +2.5% | 46% | -0.05% |
| +3.0% | 45% | -0.02% |
| +4.0% | 42% | -0.03% |
| +5.0% | 42% | -0.02% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 91% | N=213 |
| 횡보장 | 89% | N=228 |
| 상승장 | 90% | N=248 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | 1.91% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-22 | 3.24% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-26 | 1.78% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-26 | 2.35% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-31 | 3.86% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-09 | 0.62% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-17 | 1.89% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-23 | 2.31% | ✅ hit |