What is EMA death cross? — chart signal explained
This signal watches how two recency-weighted moving averages (EMAs) — one spanning 20 candles, one spanning 50 — sit relative to each other. Fast line above slow line is generally taken as an up-leaning market; fast below slow, a down-leaning one.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
It fires on the first candle where the 20-candle EMA slips below the 50-candle EMA, after sitting at or above it on the previous candle.
How traders usually read it
With the short-term trend dipping under the long-term one, it's widely read as a warning that the broader direction may be turning down. It's well-known enough that 'death cross' headlines regularly make the financial news.
What to watch out for
It shows up late, only after a sizable decline — so it's not rare for the signal to coincide with a short-term bottom. If the drop ends quickly, a golden cross follows soon after, and that round trip can hurt you on both sides.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1d)
The common reading is a drop — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 8 times on BTC 1d; across the most recent 8, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 75% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 75%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 75% | +0.12% |
| ±0.5% | 75% | +0.25% |
| ±0.75% | 75% | +0.38% |
| ±1% | 75% | +0.50% |
| ±1.5% | 62% | +0.36% |
| ±2% | 50% | +0.00% |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-16 | 7.1% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2024-06-29 | 16.83% | ✅ hit |
| 2024-10-25 | 0.43% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2024-11-01 | 6.13% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-01-13 | 0.38% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-10-15 | 7.81% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.55% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-18 | 7.66% | ✅ hit |
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