What is EMA golden cross? — chart signal explained
An EMA is a moving average that gives extra weight to recent prices. This signal overlays two of them: a faster line built mostly from the last 20 candles and a slower one from the last 50. Think of the fast line as the market's current mood and the slow line as the bigger picture.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
It triggers on the candle where the 20-candle EMA rises above the 50-candle EMA, having been at or below it on the previous candle.
How traders usually read it
The common reading is that the short-term trend has overtaken the long-term one — potentially the start of a move higher. It's also famous enough that plenty of traders are watching the exact same spot.
What to watch out for
For two averages to swap places, price has to have already climbed quite a bit, so the signal is late by design. In sideways, directionless markets, golden and death crosses can alternate in quick succession and fool you every time.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1d)
The common reading is a bounce (up) — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 24 times on BTC 1d; across the most recent 24, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 46% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 58%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 46% | -0.02% |
| ±0.5% | 54% | +0.04% |
| ±0.75% | 54% | +0.06% |
| ±1% | 58% | +0.16% |
| ±1.5% | 54% | +0.12% |
| ±2% | 58% | +0.32% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −5.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−5.0% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sideways | 92% | -0.26% | N=12 |
| Bull market | 92% | -0.26% | N=12 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-22 | 5.18% | ✅ hit |
| 2023-10-06 | 7.41% | ✅ hit |
| 2024-05-18 | 7.57% | ✅ hit |
| 2024-07-23 | 6.28% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2024-09-22 | 4.59% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-04-24 | 4.17% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-09-15 | 2.21% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-10-01 | 6.41% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |