Does BTC really go up when EMA golden cross fires? — verified win rate
After a EMA golden cross signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 61% of the 694 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 50% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call an upside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is EMA golden cross?
EMAs are moving averages that weight recent prices more heavily, and a golden cross is when the faster 20-EMA crosses above the slower 50-EMA. It's widely read as a shift toward an uptrend. It lags price, though, so it can appear late and reverse soon after — a false signal is common.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 91% | -0.02% |
| +0.5% | 80% | -0.05% |
| +0.75% | 71% | -0.04% |
| +1.0% | 65% | -0.05% |
| +1.25% | 60% | -0.04% |
| +1.5% | 56% | -0.03% |
| +1.75% | 53% | -0.03% |
| +2.0% | 51% | -0.04% |
| +2.5% | 49% | +0.00% |
| +3.0% | 46% | -0.03% |
| +4.0% | 45% | +0.04% |
| +5.0% | 45% | +0.05% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 92% | N=265 |
| 횡보장 | 91% | N=222 |
| 상승장 | 91% | N=201 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 0.34% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-05-20 | 0.75% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-24 | 0.94% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-26 | 0.84% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-05-30 | 0.53% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-07 | 3.46% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-11 | 1.85% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-20 | 0.67% | ✅ hit |