Does BTC really go up when Hammer fires? — verified win rate
After a Hammer signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 54% of the 4061 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 46% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call an upside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is Hammer?
A hammer is a candle with a long lower wick, meaning sellers pushed price down but buyers bought it back up before the close. It often appears after a drop and is read as a sign buyers are stepping in. It's only one candle, though, and price frequently keeps falling anyway.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 87% | -0.12% |
| +0.5% | 78% | -0.11% |
| +0.75% | 70% | -0.12% |
| +1.0% | 63% | -0.13% |
| +1.25% | 59% | -0.13% |
| +1.5% | 55% | -0.14% |
| +1.75% | 53% | -0.13% |
| +2.0% | 50% | -0.13% |
| +2.5% | 48% | -0.13% |
| +3.0% | 46% | -0.11% |
| +4.0% | 45% | -0.08% |
| +5.0% | 44% | -0.06% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 88% | N=1223 |
| 횡보장 | 86% | N=1309 |
| 상승장 | 88% | N=1481 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 0.9% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-18 | 1.3% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-20 | 1.26% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-21 | 2.25% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-21 | 2.19% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-26 | 1.4% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-27 | 0.96% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-27 | 0.02% | — |