What is MACD bear cross? — chart signal explained
MACD turns a simple idea into a number: compare a fast average of the last 12 candles with a slower one of the last 26, and watch which way the gap is opening. Subtracting a 9-candle average of that gap (the signal line) gives the histogram — bars above zero say buyers have the momentum, bars below zero say sellers do.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
It fires when the MACD histogram drops below zero on the current candle after being at or above zero on the previous one — the exact mirror image of the MACD bull cross.
How traders usually read it
Traders usually read it as upward momentum starting to stall, and many use it as a heads-up that price could drift lower from here.
What to watch out for
It's a lagging signal that often only appears after a decent drop, so selling the moment it fires can mean selling near a short-term low. It also fires during brief pauses inside strong uptrends, only to reverse right back.
What the data actually shows (ATOM 1d)
The common reading is a drop — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 44 times on ATOM 1d; across the most recent 44, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 41% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 41%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 41% | -0.05% |
| ±0.5% | 39% | -0.11% |
| ±0.75% | 52% | +0.03% |
| ±1% | 41% | -0.18% |
| ±1.5% | 45% | -0.15% |
| ±2% | 43% | -0.28% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −5.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−5.0% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear market | 91% | -0.30% | N=11 |
| Sideways | 73% | -1.23% | N=15 |
| Bull market | 94% | -0.12% | N=18 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 8.95% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-02 | 2.44% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-05-20 | 0.05% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-05-29 | 22.71% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-20 | 16.81% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-07-23 | 14.65% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-08-29 | 4.39% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-09-14 | 7.32% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
Strong conditions only, with past probability, sample size and validity window