Does BTC really go up when MACD bull cross fires? — verified win rate
After a MACD bull cross signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 57% of the 2968 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 51% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call an upside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is MACD bull cross?
MACD is a momentum tool built from two moving averages, and its histogram crossing up through zero means short-term momentum has turned positive. Traders often read this bullish cross as upward momentum gaining. It lags real price, though, so it can flip back quickly and the move can fade.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 88% | -0.11% |
| +0.5% | 78% | -0.11% |
| +0.75% | 70% | -0.10% |
| +1.0% | 65% | -0.08% |
| +1.25% | 60% | -0.09% |
| +1.5% | 57% | -0.08% |
| +1.75% | 54% | -0.06% |
| +2.0% | 52% | -0.06% |
| +2.5% | 49% | -0.04% |
| +3.0% | 47% | -0.04% |
| +4.0% | 45% | +0.00% |
| +5.0% | 45% | +0.02% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 87% | N=960 |
| 횡보장 | 88% | N=973 |
| 상승장 | 88% | N=1003 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | 2.12% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-22 | 2.14% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-23 | 1.23% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-24 | 1.45% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-25 | 1.62% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-26 | 1.21% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-28 | 0.19% | — |
| 2026-06-29 | 1.22% | ✅ hit |