Does BTC really go down when RSI deeply overbought fires? — verified win rate
After a RSI deeply overbought signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 71% of the 279 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 52% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call a downside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is RSI deeply overbought?
RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a 0-100 gauge of recent up versus down strength, and above 80 is an extreme reading — the upside has run very hot. This is a strong overbought signal that many watch for a pullback. Even so, in a powerful rally price can keep pushing higher for a while.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 86% | -0.20% |
| +0.5% | 80% | -0.17% |
| +0.75% | 72% | -0.18% |
| +1.0% | 66% | -0.17% |
| +1.25% | 61% | -0.19% |
| +1.5% | 57% | -0.20% |
| +1.75% | 52% | -0.27% |
| +2.0% | 49% | -0.31% |
| +2.5% | 44% | -0.40% |
| +3.0% | 42% | -0.41% |
| +4.0% | 41% | -0.38% |
| +5.0% | 41% | -0.31% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 82% | N=55 |
| 횡보장 | 83% | N=103 |
| 상승장 | 91% | N=121 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | 1.3% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-11-10 | 1.55% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-12-02 | 1.34% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-12-29 | 2.64% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-01-05 | 0.87% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-02-25 | 2.63% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-03-04 | 3.04% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-04-05 | 1.06% | ✅ hit |