Does BTC really go up when RSI deeply oversold fires? — verified win rate
After a RSI deeply oversold signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 86% of the 203 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 54% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call an upside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is RSI deeply oversold?
RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a 0-100 gauge of recent up versus down strength, and below 20 is an extreme reading — the downside has run very hard. This strong oversold signal has many watching for a bounce. Still, in a steep selloff price can grind lower before any turn comes.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 83% | -0.29% |
| +0.5% | 77% | -0.25% |
| +0.75% | 70% | -0.27% |
| +1.0% | 60% | -0.41% |
| +1.25% | 54% | -0.49% |
| +1.5% | 50% | -0.53% |
| +1.75% | 47% | -0.54% |
| +2.0% | 44% | -0.60% |
| +2.5% | 41% | -0.64% |
| +3.0% | 39% | -0.70% |
| +4.0% | 35% | -0.76% |
| +5.0% | 34% | -0.72% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 85% | N=98 |
| 횡보장 | 83% | N=78 |
| 상승장 | 73% | N=26 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | 3.37% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-03-27 | 0.52% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-03-27 | 1.47% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-23 | 3.75% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-28 | 1.31% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-01 | 0.94% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-02 | 0.04% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-02 | 1.7% | ✅ hit |