Does BTC really go down when RSI overbought fires? — verified win rate
After a RSI overbought signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 59% of the 1220 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 55% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call a downside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is RSI overbought?
RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a 0-100 gauge of recent up versus down strength, and above 70 means the upside has run hot. Many read this as overbought and watch for a breather or dip. But RSI can stay above 70 through a strong rally, so price often keeps climbing regardless.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 88% | -0.15% |
| +0.5% | 78% | -0.19% |
| +0.75% | 70% | -0.20% |
| +1.0% | 62% | -0.26% |
| +1.25% | 57% | -0.29% |
| +1.5% | 54% | -0.29% |
| +1.75% | 51% | -0.29% |
| +2.0% | 49% | -0.29% |
| +2.5% | 47% | -0.28% |
| +3.0% | 45% | -0.26% |
| +4.0% | 44% | -0.26% |
| +5.0% | 43% | -0.28% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 88% | N=329 |
| 횡보장 | 86% | N=395 |
| 상승장 | 89% | N=492 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 2.36% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-10 | 1.4% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-10 | 2.13% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-14 | 3.94% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-05-23 | 1.41% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-07 | 2.66% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-14 | 0.56% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-15 | 0.63% | ✅ hit |