Does BTC really go up when RSI oversold fires? — verified win rate
After a RSI oversold signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 69% of the 1122 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 47% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call an upside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is RSI oversold?
RSI (Relative Strength Index) is a 0-100 gauge of recent up versus down strength, and below 30 means the downside has run hard. Many read this as oversold and watch for a possible bounce. But RSI can stay below 30 in a sharp selloff, so price often keeps falling anyway.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 85% | -0.21% |
| +0.5% | 78% | -0.21% |
| +0.75% | 70% | -0.21% |
| +1.0% | 64% | -0.22% |
| +1.25% | 59% | -0.23% |
| +1.5% | 56% | -0.26% |
| +1.75% | 53% | -0.25% |
| +2.0% | 51% | -0.26% |
| +2.5% | 48% | -0.22% |
| +3.0% | 46% | -0.22% |
| +4.0% | 45% | -0.19% |
| +5.0% | 44% | -0.18% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 84% | N=438 |
| 횡보장 | 87% | N=373 |
| 상승장 | 87% | N=293 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 1.47% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-17 | 2.54% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-18 | 1.68% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-21 | 3.65% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-23 | 0.29% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-23 | 1.6% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-24 | 0.19% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-25 | 4.24% | ✅ hit |