Does BTC really go down when Shooting star fires? — verified win rate
After a Shooting star signal on BTC 1d, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 89% of the 87 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 70% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call a downside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is Shooting star?
A shooting star is a candle with a long upper wick, meaning buyers pushed the price up but sellers slammed it back down before the close. It usually shows selling pressure appearing after a rise, which some read as a warning of a turn lower. It's just one candle, though, and price often keeps climbing anyway.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 84% | -0.67% |
| +0.5% | 78% | -0.78% |
| +0.75% | 75% | -0.78% |
| +1.0% | 71% | -0.80% |
| +1.25% | 70% | -0.69% |
| +1.5% | 67% | -0.74% |
| +1.75% | 63% | -0.78% |
| +2.0% | 61% | -0.78% |
| +2.5% | 61% | -0.47% |
| +3.0% | 53% | -0.73% |
| +4.0% | 45% | -0.93% |
| +5.0% | 45% | -0.63% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 84% | N=32 |
| 횡보장 | 85% | N=27 |
| 상승장 | 84% | N=25 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 17.4% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-10-27 | 13.29% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-11-30 | 7.23% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-12-10 | 8.22% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-12-25 | 0.65% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-12-29 | 0.45% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-03-13 | 0.86% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-05-06 | 4.67% | ✅ hit |