Does BTC really go down when Shooting star fires? — verified win rate
After a Shooting star signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 55% of the 3242 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 51% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call a downside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is Shooting star?
A shooting star is a candle with a long upper wick, meaning buyers pushed the price up but sellers slammed it back down before the close. It usually shows selling pressure appearing after a rise, which some read as a warning of a turn lower. It's just one candle, though, and price often keeps climbing anyway.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 86% | -0.14% |
| +0.5% | 77% | -0.13% |
| +0.75% | 69% | -0.13% |
| +1.0% | 63% | -0.12% |
| +1.25% | 59% | -0.12% |
| +1.5% | 55% | -0.13% |
| +1.75% | 52% | -0.14% |
| +2.0% | 50% | -0.15% |
| +2.5% | 47% | -0.14% |
| +3.0% | 46% | -0.12% |
| +4.0% | 44% | -0.12% |
| +5.0% | 44% | -0.10% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 87% | N=1119 |
| 횡보장 | 86% | N=1055 |
| 상승장 | 86% | N=1009 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | 1.64% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-25 | 1.88% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-25 | 2.44% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-26 | 1.16% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-26 | 0.3% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-27 | 0.64% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-28 | 1.89% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-29 | 1.77% | ✅ hit |