Does BTC really go down when Squeeze breakdown fires? — verified win rate
After a Squeeze breakdown signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 69% of the 1414 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 55% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call a downside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is Squeeze breakdown?
Bollinger Bands measure volatility, and a "squeeze" is when they pinch tight after a calm period — here with price pressing down. A squeeze hints a large move is brewing, and the downward push is read as a possible breakdown. Squeezes can resolve either direction, though, so the drop often fails and reverses.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 88% | -0.11% |
| +0.5% | 78% | -0.14% |
| +0.75% | 70% | -0.18% |
| +1.0% | 65% | -0.14% |
| +1.25% | 61% | -0.12% |
| +1.5% | 58% | -0.10% |
| +1.75% | 53% | -0.13% |
| +2.0% | 51% | -0.14% |
| +2.5% | 47% | -0.11% |
| +3.0% | 45% | -0.07% |
| +4.0% | 42% | -0.11% |
| +5.0% | 40% | -0.09% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 88% | N=521 |
| 횡보장 | 87% | N=341 |
| 상승장 | 89% | N=536 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | 0.83% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-10 | 0.12% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-12 | 0.04% | — |
| 2026-06-14 | 0.48% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-17 | 1.89% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-18 | 2.42% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-19 | 0.06% | — |
| 2026-06-21 | 0.91% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |