Does BTC really go up when Squeeze breakout up fires? — verified win rate
After a Squeeze breakout up signal on BTC 1d, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 84% of the 120 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 55% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call an upside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is Squeeze breakout up?
Bollinger Bands wrap around price to show its volatility, and a "squeeze" is when they pinch tight after a quiet stretch — here with price pushing up. Traders watch a squeeze for a big move and read the upward push as a possible breakout higher. But squeezes can break either way, so the pop often reverses.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 88% | -0.46% |
| +0.5% | 83% | -0.47% |
| +0.75% | 80% | -0.46% |
| +1.0% | 77% | -0.46% |
| +1.25% | 74% | -0.42% |
| +1.5% | 71% | -0.43% |
| +1.75% | 68% | -0.38% |
| +2.0% | 67% | -0.30% |
| +2.5% | 64% | -0.15% |
| +3.0% | 62% | -0.05% |
| +4.0% | 57% | +0.18% |
| +5.0% | 53% | +0.24% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 83% | N=36 |
| 횡보장 | 90% | N=50 |
| 상승장 | 88% | N=34 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | 5.96% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-08-11 | 4.88% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-12-03 | 0.7% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-12-07 | 4.64% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-01-01 | 6.7% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-03-02 | 7.58% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-04-07 | 8.91% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-04-30 | 8.52% | ✅ hit |