Does BTC really go up when Squeeze breakout up fires? — verified win rate
After a Squeeze breakout up signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 50% of the 1513 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 52% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call an upside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is Squeeze breakout up?
Bollinger Bands wrap around price to show its volatility, and a "squeeze" is when they pinch tight after a quiet stretch — here with price pushing up. Traders watch a squeeze for a big move and read the upward push as a possible breakout higher. But squeezes can break either way, so the pop often reverses.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 88% | -0.13% |
| +0.5% | 78% | -0.15% |
| +0.75% | 71% | -0.14% |
| +1.0% | 66% | -0.11% |
| +1.25% | 61% | -0.09% |
| +1.5% | 57% | -0.09% |
| +1.75% | 54% | -0.09% |
| +2.0% | 52% | -0.07% |
| +2.5% | 48% | -0.06% |
| +3.0% | 46% | -0.06% |
| +4.0% | 43% | -0.06% |
| +5.0% | 41% | -0.10% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 88% | N=550 |
| 횡보장 | 84% | N=355 |
| 상승장 | 90% | N=589 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | 1.1% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-19 | 1.88% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-19 | 1.8% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-20 | 1.47% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-20 | 1.33% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-20 | 1.0% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-24 | 0.49% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-24 | 0.56% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |