Does BTC really go down when Stoch overbought fires? — verified win rate
After a Stoch overbought signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 52% of the 5353 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 53% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call a downside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is Stoch overbought?
The Stochastic is a 0-100 gauge of where price closed within its recent range, and over 80 means it's been closing near the highs. Traders call this "overbought" and watch for a possible pullback. But a high reading can stay high in a strong uptrend, so price often keeps rising instead of dropping.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 89% | -0.10% |
| +0.5% | 80% | -0.09% |
| +0.75% | 71% | -0.11% |
| +1.0% | 65% | -0.11% |
| +1.25% | 61% | -0.12% |
| +1.5% | 57% | -0.12% |
| +1.75% | 55% | -0.11% |
| +2.0% | 53% | -0.10% |
| +2.5% | 50% | -0.08% |
| +3.0% | 49% | -0.08% |
| +4.0% | 47% | -0.08% |
| +5.0% | 46% | -0.07% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 89% | N=1657 |
| 횡보장 | 88% | N=1720 |
| 상승장 | 89% | N=1915 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | 2.37% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-26 | 1.28% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-27 | 0.72% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-27 | 1.02% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-27 | 1.38% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-29 | 1.73% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-29 | 1.82% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-29 | 1.79% | ✅ hit |