What is Stoch overbought? — chart signal explained
Stochastic asks a simple question: how close is price to the ceiling of its recent range? Using the highest and lowest prices of a recent window as the two endpoints, it converts the current close into a 0-100 position score, where values near 100 mean price is hugging the recent top.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
The signal turns on when the value, calculated from the high-low range of the last 14 candles, rises above 80 — in other words, price has climbed into the top 20% of its recent range.
How traders usually read it
Above 80 is conventionally read as short-term overheating, so many traders expect a pause or a partial pullback. It's also used as a caution flag against chasing a move that has already run a long way.
What to watch out for
When an uptrend is strong, the reading can sit above 80 for extended stretches while price keeps climbing, so expecting a drop from this signal alone can fail again and again. Note that Barobara uses the raw, unsmoothed %K, so the number may differ slightly from the 'slow stochastic' shown in other charting apps.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1d)
The common reading is a drop — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 32 times on BTC 1d; across the most recent 32, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 56% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 56%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 56% | +0.03% |
| ±0.5% | 59% | +0.09% |
| ±0.75% | 59% | +0.13% |
| ±1% | 56% | +0.12% |
| ±1.5% | 50% | +0.00% |
| ±2% | 56% | +0.24% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −5.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−5.0% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear market | 88% | -0.48% | N=8 |
| Sideways | 67% | -1.58% | N=9 |
| Bull market | 87% | -0.53% | N=15 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-06 | 80.6% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-10-31 | 21.54% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-12-09 | 14.71% | ✅ hit |
| 2025-12-27 | 4.37% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-12-31 | 0.3% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-01-03 | 0.92% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-02-13 | 10.38% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-03-25 | 9.78% | ✅ hit |
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