Does BTC really go up when Stoch oversold fires? — verified win rate
After a Stoch oversold signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 60% of the 4622 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 47% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call an upside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is Stoch oversold?
The Stochastic is a 0-100 gauge that shows where price closed relative to its recent range; under 20 means it's been closing near the lows. Traders read this as "oversold" and watch for a possible bounce. But a low reading can stay low in a strong downtrend, so price often keeps falling instead of turning.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 89% | -0.12% |
| +0.5% | 80% | -0.09% |
| +0.75% | 73% | -0.08% |
| +1.0% | 67% | -0.07% |
| +1.25% | 63% | -0.06% |
| +1.5% | 59% | -0.05% |
| +1.75% | 57% | -0.06% |
| +2.0% | 54% | -0.07% |
| +2.5% | 52% | -0.05% |
| +3.0% | 50% | -0.03% |
| +4.0% | 48% | -0.03% |
| +5.0% | 48% | -0.00% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 87% | N=1590 |
| 횡보장 | 89% | N=1540 |
| 상승장 | 90% | N=1443 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 0.19% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-25 | 4.24% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-26 | 3.75% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-27 | 0.61% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-27 | 0.57% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-27 | 0.86% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-28 | 1.49% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-28 | 2.25% | ✅ hit |