Does BTC really go up when Volume spike (green) fires? — verified win rate
After a Volume spike (green) signal on BTC 1h, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 67% of the 2082 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 53% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call an upside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is Volume spike (green)?
This flags a green (up) candle on unusually heavy volume — more than two standard deviations above normal. Heavy buying volume can signal real conviction higher, or a blow-off spike that's already spent. It's genuinely mixed, so it can lead to more upside or mark a short-term top.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 87% | -0.12% |
| +0.5% | 77% | -0.14% |
| +0.75% | 70% | -0.12% |
| +1.0% | 64% | -0.10% |
| +1.25% | 60% | -0.10% |
| +1.5% | 56% | -0.09% |
| +1.75% | 54% | -0.07% |
| +2.0% | 51% | -0.08% |
| +2.5% | 48% | -0.05% |
| +3.0% | 47% | -0.02% |
| +4.0% | 45% | +0.03% |
| +5.0% | 45% | +0.07% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 88% | N=653 |
| 횡보장 | 87% | N=701 |
| 상승장 | 87% | N=708 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | 1.18% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-13 | 0.98% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-14 | 3.03% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-17 | 1.06% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-06-20 | 1.0% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-22 | 2.7% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-25 | 2.17% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-06-26 | 0.81% | ✅ hit |