What is Volume spike (green)? — chart signal explained
Volume tells you how much actually changed hands during a given bar. Barobara compares each bar's volume to the average of the last 20 bars, using the typical range of variation (standard deviation) to spot moments when trading activity is unusually heavy. This signal picks out the cases where that burst of activity came with a rising price.
When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria
It fires when volume runs more than 2 standard deviations above the 20-bar average and the bar closes higher than the previous bar's close.
How traders usually read it
When a surge of volume comes with a price gain, many traders read it as a move backed by real money rather than drift, and they hope that momentum carries a bit further. The common belief is that a rise on heavy volume is more trustworthy than one on thin volume.
What to watch out for
Heavy volume means lots of sellers too, not just buyers — the same signal lights up when the last wave of buyers piles in at the top of a spike. It can also be a one-off burst around a news headline that fades quickly, so on its own it doesn't tell you the rise will continue.
What the data actually shows (BTC 1d)
The common reading is a bounce (up) — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 27 times on BTC 1d; across the most recent 27, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 63% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 56%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.
Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)
Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.
| Target = stop (±) | Win rate (+ first) | EV (before fees) |
|---|---|---|
| ±0.25% | 63% | +0.07% |
| ±0.5% | 52% | +0.02% |
| ±0.75% | 56% | +0.09% |
| ±1% | 56% | +0.12% |
| ±1.5% | 52% | +0.06% |
| ±2% | 56% | +0.24% |
Broken down by market regime
⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −5.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25% target) | EV (−5.0% stop) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull market | 71% | -1.33% | N=14 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-11 | 4.94% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-07-18 | 21.93% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-08-13 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2025-09-13 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-01-02 | 10.35% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-02-06 | 1.02% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-03-04 | 0.0% | — 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-04-16 | 2.99% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
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