Does BTC really go down when Williams %R overbought fires? — verified win rate
After a Williams %R overbought signal on BTC 1d, the smaller target (+0.25%) was reached first in about 88% of the 229 past cases. That may look high, but it is only because the target is small — the expected value (EV) is negative, so it does not pay off over the long run. Widen the target to +1% and the win rate falls to about 66% — close to a coin flip. In short, this signal does not reliably call a downside move — it is a historical probability, not a prediction.
What is Williams %R overbought?
Williams %R is a 0 to -100 gauge of recent momentum, and above -20 means price is near the top of its recent range. This is usually read as overbought, hinting a pause or dip could come. It's no guarantee, though — the reading can stay pinned near the top while price keeps climbing.
Win rate and expected value by target
Win rate and EV shift with the target (the % that must be hit first). A higher win rate is not better — you have to read it together with EV.
| Target | Win rate | EV |
|---|---|---|
| +0.25% | 90% | -0.38% |
| +0.5% | 88% | -0.23% |
| +0.75% | 85% | -0.16% |
| +1.0% | 79% | -0.29% |
| +1.25% | 76% | -0.26% |
| +1.5% | 73% | -0.30% |
| +1.75% | 69% | -0.36% |
| +2.0% | 66% | -0.40% |
| +2.5% | 60% | -0.51% |
| +3.0% | 55% | -0.58% |
| +4.0% | 49% | -0.61% |
| +5.0% | 45% | -0.52% |
Broken down by market regime
The same signal shows different win rates in bull vs bear markets — so no signal “always works”.
| Regime | Win rate (+0.25%) | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| 하락장 | 94% | N=50 |
| 횡보장 | 88% | N=85 |
| 상승장 | 89% | N=92 |
Recent occurrences
How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).
| Date | MFE | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | 3.88% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-03-04 | 9.7% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-03-15 | 7.49% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-04-07 | 2.03% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-04-09 | 1.79% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-04-13 | 1.49% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |
| 2026-04-22 | 4.15% | ✅ hit |
| 2026-04-26 | 4.73% | ✅ hit 🔴 stopped |