Does Williams %R oversold really mean a bounce (up)?

That is the common reading. This signal has fired 1146 times on BTC 4h; across the most recent 300, price hit +0.25% first about 47% of the time. A historical probability, not a guarantee.

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What is Williams %R oversold? — chart signal explained

Williams %R measures how far price has pulled away from its recent high. It's quoted on an unusual scale running from 0 down to -100: near 0 means price is right at the recent high, near -100 means it's right at the recent low.

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When does it fire? — BaroBara criteria

Barobara flags this signal when Williams %R, computed over the high-low range of the last 14 candles, falls below -80.

How traders usually read it

Below -80 means price is pressed right up against its recent lows, which many traders read as 'the selling may be mostly done' — a spot they watch for a possible short-term rebound.

What to watch out for

Williams %R is essentially the stochastic oscillator turned upside down — the math is the same — so on Barobara this signal and 'Stoch oversold' almost always fire together, and seeing both is not double the evidence. In a steep decline, the reading can also stay below -80 while the lows keep getting lower.

What the data actually shows (BTC 4h)

The common reading is a bounce (up) — but what actually happened matters more. This signal has fired 1146 times on BTC 4h; across the most recent 300, price reached the small target (+0.25%) first about 47% of the time. Widen the target to ±1% and it becomes about 41%. A historical probability, not a guaranteed direction — and it shifts with market regime.

Odds and expected value — with symmetric target and stop (±)

Exactly the barobara framing: which side got hit first, +X% or −X%. Target and stop are set to the same %, and the win rate is how often the upside (+X%) was reached first.

Target = stop (±)	Win rate (+ first)	EV (before fees)
±0.25%	47%	-0.02%
±0.5%	44%	-0.06%
±0.75%	44%	-0.09%
±1%	41%	-0.18%
±1.5%	43%	-0.21%
±2%	46%	-0.16%

📐 How to read this. EV assumes a symmetric ±X% target and stop: EV = target × (win rate − loss rate), so any win rate above 50% gives a positive EV. Fees are NOT included — they differ by exchange and order type (maker/taker). In reality fees come off the top, and the smaller the target, the bigger the bite fees take (at ±0.25%, even modest fees eat much of the edge). Timeouts (neither side hit within the horizon) are classified by the closing side, and an asymmetric target/stop changes all of these numbers — setting-dependent references, not absolutes.

Broken down by market regime

⚠️ This table uses a different basis than the symmetric (±) table above — a small +0.25% target with a wide −3.0% stop (fees included). The small target makes the win rate look high while EV is often negative — exactly what signal groups hide. And the same signal behaves differently across regimes.

Regime	Win rate (+0.25% target)	EV (−3.0% stop)	Sample
Bear market	80%	-0.46%	N=424
Sideways	87%	-0.23%	N=386
Bull market	86%	-0.27%	N=325

Recent occurrences

How far price actually moved the last few times this signal fired (MFE = maximum favorable excursion).

Date	MFE	Result
2026-06-10	4.78%	✅ hit
2026-06-17	1.38%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-06-17	0.78%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-06-18	0.74%	✅ hit
2026-06-19	2.49%	✅ hit
2026-06-23	0.56%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-06-24	0.93%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped
2026-06-24	2.84%	✅ hit 🔴 stopped

🦫 See whether this signal is live right now — and verified odds for other signals and combos — on win-rate picks. Cut trading costs with fee cashback.

Data: full history since 2017 · 19448 bars · ~10.6/month · win rate from the most recent 300 occurrences. For reference, not a prediction. A signal is a historical probability, not a guaranteed direction.

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